In its 2026 European Semester assessment, the European Commission concluded that Greece no longer suffers from Macroeconomic Imbalances, marking the country's removal from the corresponding monitoring framework for the first time since the Greek sovereign debt crisis began. The Greek Ministry of National Economy and Finance described the development as a landmark achievement, underscoring its strong symbolic value and its tangible significance for the country's economic progress.

According to the ministry, this development carries significant historical weight. Following the decade of bailout programs (2010–2018), the Enhanced Surveillance regime (2018–2022), Greece's prolonged placement in the category of Excessive Macroeconomic Imbalances during 2019–2024, and its inclusion in the category of Macroeconomic Imbalances in 2025, the country is now returning to full European normality. The ministry adds that the significance of this development is even greater when considering that ten European Union member states are currently subject to excessive deficit procedures. This highlights not only the significant improvement in Greece's fiscal position, but also the fact that the economy's external imbalances and structural weaknesses have now been reduced to a level that no longer constitutes a systemic risk to the country's economic stability.

According to the Ministry, Greece's exit from the Macroeconomic Imbalances framework, the maintenance of fiscal surpluses, the continued reduction of public debt, improvements in the labor market, sustained progress in structural reforms, and the effective utilization of European funding instruments together paint the picture of an economy that has definitively moved beyond the conditions of the crisis era. These achievements, the Ministry notes, reflect an economy that continues to advance on a path defined by stability, credibility, and resilience, while strengthening its foundations for sustainable long-term growth.

More specifically, the European Commission notes in its assessment that vulnerabilities related to public and external debt have declined significantly in recent years. It highlights that sustained economic growth, fiscal surpluses, stronger bank balance sheets, and the implementation of reforms have played a decisive role in reducing the risks that had characterized the Greek economy for many years.

The Commission further emphasizes that:

• public debt is on a steady downward trajectory;
• external imbalances have been substantially reduced;
• banks have significantly strengthened their balance sheets;
• labor market conditions have continued to improve; and
• Greece has implemented a broad range of reforms in the business environment, labor market, and tax administration.

Strong Growth Despite an Uncertain International Environment

The Greek economy expanded by 2.1% in 2025, despite a period of heightened uncertainty for both the European and global economies. The European Commission forecasts that growth will continue at a rate of 1.8% in 2026, compared with an average of 0.9% for the Eurozone, reaffirming the resilience of the Greek economy.

Fiscal Surpluses and Strong Fiscal Performance

Greece recorded a General Government surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2025, up from 1.3% of GDP in 2024.

According to the European Commission, this performance was driven by:

• restraint in current public expenditure;
• lower debt-servicing costs; and
• stronger tax revenue collection.

Greece achieved this result while simultaneously implementing reductions in social security contributions, increasing public-sector wages, and introducing targeted support measures for households.

Continued Debt Reduction at the Fastest Pace in Europe

Greece continues to record the fastest pace of public debt reduction in Europe, further strengthening the sustainability of its public finances and enhancing confidence in the country's long-term economic outlook. The European Commission projects a further significant decline in Greece's public debt ratio:

• 154.2% of GDP in 2024;
• 146.1% of GDP in 2025;
• 140.7% of GDP in 2026 (forecast); and
• 134.4% of GDP in 2027 (forecast).

In other words, Greece is expected to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio by nearly 20 percentage points in just three years. According to the Commission, this improvement is being driven by strong nominal economic growth and the continued generation of fiscal surpluses.

Recognition of Reforms and the Digital Transformation

The report places particular emphasis on the reforms implemented in recent years, highlighting their contribution to strengthening the Greek economy and improving public sector efficiency. Specific reference is made to:

• the digitalization of tax administration;
• the digitalization of customs controls;
• the development of digital compliance tools;
• the significant reduction in the VAT gap; and
• the overall improvement in tax compliance.

The European Commission also underscores the substantial progress Greece has made in modernizing its public administration. At the same time, it notes that public-sector wage expenditure amounted to 10.2% of GDP in 2025, remaining broadly in line with the European Union average of 10.3%.

Above the EU Average in the Implementation of European Programs

The European Commission finds that the implementation of Cohesion Policy programmes in Greece is progressing at a faster pace than the European Union average, both in terms of project selection and the disbursement of funds. At the same time, the Commission acknowledges the significant contribution of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) in advancing investments and reforms that strengthen the competitiveness and resilience of the Greek economy. These developments underscore Greece's ability to effectively absorb and utilize European funding, supporting sustainable growth and accelerating the country's economic transformation.

(Source: https://www.amna.gr/)

OECD: Greek Economic Growth Remains Resilient

In its latest Economic Outlook, the OECD projects that the Greek economy will maintain strong growth momentum despite the uncertainty stemming from the crisis in the Middle East. Specifically, the OECD forecasts GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, broadly in line with the 2.1% growth recorded in 2025.

According to the report, investments will be supported by increased disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which are expected to rise from 2.6% of GDP in 2025 to 4.4% of GDP in 2026. At the same time, consumption is projected to benefit from continued employment growth, reductions in personal income taxation, and measures aimed at mitigating the impact of the energy crisis, despite persistently elevated energy prices. The OECD also expects exports to strengthen gradually during the second half of 2026 as international demand improves.

(Source: https://www.amna.gr/)

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Greece has recorded the largest reduction in public debt among the EU’s 27 member states following the pandemic crisis, according to aggregated Eurostat data announced yesterday, confirming the steady downward trend of recent years.

“Greece is recording the fastest debt reduction in history,” emphasized Minister of National Economy Kyriakos Pierrakakis in a post on X. As Kyriakos Pierrakakis highlights, the rapid reduction of debt is a deliberate government choice, aimed at ensuring it is not passed on to the next generation.

Public debt-to-GDP ratio (Source: Eurostat, AMECO)

Due to extraordinary fiscal spending and the recession caused by Covid-19, Greek debt had risen in the first quarter of 2021 to 212.9% of GDP—more than double the European average, which at that time stood at 91.5%. However, by the end of 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio had declined to 146.1%. This decrease—amounting to nearly 67 percentage points within four years—was achieved despite the pressures on the economy from the dual energy and supply crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In practice, Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio has returned to its most favorable levels since the summer of 2010, that is, since the launch of the first adjustment program. This outcome is attributed to prudent fiscal policy with the creation of primary surpluses, the early repayment of loans from the first bailout program and expensive IMF loans, as well as strong growth rates that boost GDP. During the same period, the European average improved by only 9.8 percentage points. As a result, the gap between Greece and the EU narrowed to 64.4 percentage points, compared to 121.4 points recorded at the beginning of 2021. The only country with comparable performance is Cyprus, which between 2021 and 2025 improved its debt-to-GDP ratio by 62.5 percentage points. On the other hand, eight member states saw their debt increase, while major economies such as Germany and France reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios by just 5.3 and 1.5 percentage points respectively, despite their traditionally lower borrowing costs.

It is noted that the structure of Greek debt remains favorable, as a large portion consists of support loans from previous programs, as also highlighted by the analysis of ELSTAT. The government’s economic team continues to target a further reduction of the debt, aiming for 140% of GDP by 2027 and 120% by 2030.

(Source: https://www.amna.gr, Cover photo: Shutterstock)

Valdis Dombrovskis, Commissioner for Economy and Productivity, and for Implementation and Simplification, https://x.com/VDombrovskis/status/2047262424554705205/photo/1

Daniel Kral - Oxford Economics, https://x.com/DanielKral1/status/2046961944570069296/photo/1

Daniel Kral - Oxford Economics, https://x.com/DanielKral1/status/2046961944570069296/photo/1

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Greece in Numbers is a hub for publicly available data on Greece’s economy and society, aiming to facilitate access to statistics that can inform public debate, policy-making and research οn Greece.

The hub, which was launched on February 25, 2025 collects up-to-date data from official and other sources – such as the Hellenic Statistical Authority - ELSTAT, the Bank of Greece, ministries and other public institutions – and organizes the data into a structured, coherent format. The data is visually presented through graphs, each accompanied by clear and concise explanations to enhance accessibility and understanding. By doing so, Greece in Numbers enriches, amplifies, and extends the reach of official data. All data and graphs are freely available for individual and non-commercial use, with options for easy access and download. Over time, Greece in Numbers will expand its data coverage and functionalities.

 Greece in Numbers is a project of the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research - IOBE, developed in collaboration with the Hellenic Observatory of the London School of Economics and the Hellenic Studies Program of Yale University  

The origin and creation of Greece in Numbers

The idea for Greece in Numbers originated during the public debates in the period of the Greek debt crisis. Often, these debates lacked a foundation of essential data. Professor Manolis Galenianos conceived the idea of creating a data hub that would collect, structure, and present data in a way that is easily accessible, and this vision was shared by a number of academics. The need for such a data hub is becoming more evident as, over time, new sources of data become available and new uses for data are emerging.

On February 25 IOBE organized a press conference for the launch of Greece In Numbers. The event began with a greeting from the chairman of the board of directors of IOBE, Yannis Retsos, who stated that primary goal of the portal is to address the historical lack of readily available and consolidated data concerning the Greek economy, "a perennial problem for Greek businesses but also for Greek and foreign investors who aspired or aspire to invest in Greece."

Professor and General Director of IOBE Nikos Vettas made a brief presentation of the project, explaining that the data is organized thematically, featuring visualizations such as graphs, and including explanations of the metrics (explaining for example what is inflation=. Prof. Vettas noted the portal is not simply a data dump, but features underlying databases and a comprehensive information system, in order to promote transparency and informed public discourse and to assist academics and policymakers. As he emphasized, all data in the portal is free and publicly available; the portal's added value lies in bringing different sources together in a uniform and accessible manner for specialists and the general public alike.

Manolis Galenianos, Professor at Royal Holloway and the project’s director, stated that Greece in Numbers currently includes over 650 individual graphs comprising 6,000 separate variables, from 20 different data sources. These data are continuously updated to reflect the most current information, and there are plans to incorporate more data sources in the future. The portal covers a wide array of categories, ranging from the labor market and justice system statistics to public order, tourism, public finances, and various other socio-economic data.

As prof. Galenianos noted, a key feature of the portal is its ability to consolidate data from multiple sources to provide a more complete picture of a particular aspect of the Greek economy. For example, in the case of labor market data, the portal combines data from ELSTAT’s Labor Force Survey with data from the Ministry of Labor's Ergani system, the e-EFKA (Unified Social Security Fund), and the public sector payroll. This integration offers a more nuanced view of the labor market, explaining the differences between the sources and clarifying their specific focus.

Svetoslav Danchev, Head of Microeconomic Analysis & Policy Unit at IOBΕ, presented the portal from a user perspective; as he pointed out the portal is designed to be intuitive, with information organized into 12 main areas and a search function to quickly find specific data. The data is presented with long-term historical series to provide perspective, and users can focus on specific periods for detailed analysis. The ability to combine data from different sources allows for a comprehensive understanding of complex issues, like the impact of the energy crisis on consumer prices and household purchasing power.

In the round table discussion that followed, president of ELSTAT Athanasios Thanopoulos noted that ELSTAT is committed to transparency and is very invested in its collaboration with Greece in Numbers. He added the ELSTAT and provides detailed metadata to facilitate data interpretation and comparison, while it is also working to ensure that the data is traceable using blockchain technology.

The Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras pointed out the Bank’s support of the initiatives, stressing the importance of reconciling data from different sources to enhance credibility and usability. He added that the Bank of Greece has offered its resources to assist ELSTAT in integrating data from various sources.

It was mentioned in the round table discussion that, despite the improvements in data quality and accessibility, there remains some public skepticism towards Greek statistics. To counter this, as mr Thanopoulos underlined, the focus now is on transparency, automation, and adherence to international standards.

Overall, he speakers emphasized that the platform compiles existing public data from various sources, into a user-friendly format. They highlighted the portal's goal to promote transparency, inform public discourse, and support evidence-based policymaking.

Ultimately, the creators envision "Greece in Numbers" becoming a go-to resource for anyone seeking a clear understanding of the Greek economy and society.

All in all, the "Greece in Numbers" portal represents a significant step towards improving data accessibility and transparency in Greece. By centralizing and simplifying access to key economic and social indicators, the initiative has the potential to support more informed decision-making, public discourse, and research on the country's development. Continued efforts to update data, expand coverage, and promote data literacy will be crucial for the long-term success of the project.

Greece in Numbers is governed by a Steering Committee composed by: Manolis Galenianos (who is leading the project as Director; Professor at Royal Holloway, University of London), Nikos Vettas (General Director of IOBE and Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business), Vassilis Monastiriotis (Director of the Hellenic Observatory and Professor, LSE), Costas Arkolakis (Director of the Hellenic Studies Program and Professor, Yale University), Christos Genakos (Professor, Cambridge University), and Dimitris Vayanos (Professor, LSE).

I.L.

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