Theodore A. Couloumbis, world renowned International Relations expert, Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of Athens and a firm believer of Greek-Turkish dialogue, passed away last week at age 87. He was among the founders of Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), one of the first and biggest Greek think tanks -established in 1988- and has served as the foundation's President (1993–95) and Director General (1998–2006).

As is mentioned in this obituary at ELIAMEP, "his contribution to ELIAMEP and to the Greek international studies community is immeasurable. He was a teacher, friend and mentor to hundreds of his university students and colleagues. A model academic teacher and a man of profound integrity, genuine courtesy and inexhaustible kindness, he also had an inexhaustible and sparkling sense of humour."

Theodore Couloumbis was born in Thessaloniki in June 1935. His father was an artillery officer, his mother a kindergarten teacher. He lost his father in 1941, when he was killed aged just 33 in the Battle of Crete. He grew up with his mother and brother and attended Athens College on a scholarship. He emigrated to the United States to study in 1952; he would live, study and work there for more than 30 years. He earned a BA in Political Science (1956) and an MA in International Relations (1958), both from the University of Connecticut, and a PhD in International Relations from the American University (1963). In the years 1965-83, Couloumbis was professor of International Relations at the American University’s School of International Service in Washington DC where he received several awards for outstanding teaching.

As he writes in his book “71…74: An academic’s notes“, the desire to return to Greece was always there in his mind and  in his heart especially, but the military coup of 1967 made this impossible, as he could not work under such suffocating conditions and constant censorship. So he stayed in America and fought the dictatorship from there. Testifying to Congress in July, August and September 1971, he strove to get “a simple but important message” across: “Stop supporting the Colonels! Greece is a country that can offer a genuinely democratic as well as non-communist alternative to the Colonels’ obscurantist and despotic regime”.

He eventually returned to Greece and from 1983 to 1989 he was professor of International Relations at the School of Law of the University of Thessaloniki, moving to the University of Athens early in 1990. In 1995-1996 he was a Senior Fellow with the United States Institute of Peace and in 2006-2007 a Policy Scholar with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He served as President of ELIAMEP in Athens (1993-1995), President of the Institute for Balkan Studies in Thessaloniki (1988-1990) and President of the Hellenic Society for International Law and International Relations (1985-1987). Couloumbis also attended meetings, as an expert, at the Greek Foreign Ministry’s Foreign Policy National Council, from its founding in 2003 to 2006. He was also a member of the Greek Turkish Forum, is a one-and-a-half-track diplomacy initiative, founded in late 1997 with the aim to promote dialogue and communication between Greece and Turkey.

Coloumbis’ work focused on conflict resolution in the post-Cold War international setting and on aspects of Greek foreign policy. He is the co-author (with James H. Wolfe) of the well-known text book, International Relations: Power and Justice, Prentice Hall, 4th ed. 1990, author of US, Greece and Turkey: The Troubled Triangle (Praeger,1983) and co-editor of the new Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies (Frank Cass and ELIAMEP). His more recent publications include the Greek Junta Phenomenon (Pella, 2004) and a co-edited volume, Greece in the 20th Century (Frank Cass, 2005). In addition to his scholarly output, he was a regular columnist and frequent contributor to newspaper “Kathimerini”.

His primary research interests included dispute resolution in the international environment, and he worked to bring about a rapprochement between Greece and Turkey based on mutual understanding within the framework provided by international law. He fought all his life for the settlement of international crises. He was a great teacher who filled lecture theatres with his infectious passion. A profoundly modest man, he did not accept positions of power when they were offered to him, always preferring to contribute quietly.

*With information from: Kathimerini, ELIAMEP

I.L.

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Greece in Europe 2040 is the product of a working group chaired by ELIAMEP’s President of the Board and Professor at Sciences Po, Paris, Loukas Tsoukalis, and consisting the following Greek experts on European integration: Maria Demertzis, Deputy Director, Bruegel, Brussels; Janis Emmanouilidis, Director of Studies, European Policy Centre, Brussels; Thodoris Georgakopoulos, Editorial Director, diANEOsis; Ruby Gropas, Adviser IDEA, European Commission; George Pagoulatos, Director General of ELIAMEP; Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business and Axel Sotiris Wallden, Senior Policy Adviser ELIAMEP, former official of the European Commission.

ELIAMEP (The Hellenic Foundation For European & Foreign Policy) is a private, independent, non-profit-making research and training institute in Athens that ranked as the number one think tank in Greece by the University of Pennsylvania’s 2019 Global Think Tank Ranking. This report was part of the White Paper on Greece 2040 produced under the auspices of the ‘Greece 2021’ Committee to mark the 200th anniversary of the Greek War of Independence. It is available online by Papazisis Publications (opens pfd link).Below you can read a summary of the report’s main points.

The path taken by the European Union (EU) between now and 2040 will be highly consequential for Greece. After all, Greece’s EU membership is the most significant factor in its foreign policy, as well as being of critical importance for the nation’s economy and public policy in general. As we all know European unification lies at the intersection of foreign and domestic policy.

The report examines the most significant trends that are expected to impact global developments in the years to come -with a focus on demographics, climate change and the technological revolution- as well as Europe’s economic model, societies and political institutions, and its international relations.

Main trends and challenges  | Europe and the international environment 

Europe’s relative import in the global balance of power will decline in the years to come. An ageing Europe with a dwindling population will be called upon to defend common interests and values in an era in which the centre of gravity is moving from West to East, and in a rapidly changing international context with power more broadly distributed and multiple potential ignition points. In other words, the international environment is undergoing major changes and Europe will be able to influence developments and defend its interests only if it acts as a united Europe and not as separate states.

Europe, same as other areas around the world will have to face the immense challenge that is climate change. Despite the many and daunting difficulties, the EU remains a pioneer in tackling climate change with the goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050 and reducing emissions by 55% by 2030. The European Green Deal is expected to be the new largescale joint venture after the single market and the euro. The new package of measures announced by the Commission in the summer of 2021 are consistent with this objective, although their implementation is expected to be extremely difficult.

As far as the digital revolution and new technologies are concerned Europe is at the forefront as a regulatory super-power, however it lags behind in production as it not currently does not have many large high-tech Companies. Countries that can control digital technologies, whether by developing systems internally or by making the best use of them, will increasingly be in a position to mould economic, social and political developments around the world. While Europe has a high level of education, skills and innovation, it does not fulfill the prerequisites for financing high-risk business initiatives. Since the future of productivity lies mainly in the knowledge-based economy that requires high-risk financing of this kind, the EU will need to take important initiatives in this direction, including the creation of a genuine capital markets union.

The report deals as well with the developments inside the EU and its Member States: The new political landscape that has emerged is characterized by fragmentation and diversity. This has made it harder to form ruling majorities, leading to fragile coalition governments and – often – to increased political instability. During this period, the so-called anti-system parties and populist parties have grown in strength. In societies with growing inequalities where the post-war social contract is under ever-growing pressure, the value ascribed to liberal parliamentary democracy, particularly among the younger generations, is increasingly in decline. Participation in elections is falling, and there has been an even greater decrease in membership of political parties. Political fluidity and social uncertainty will be inevitable characteristics during this period. As far as immigration goes, it will continue to be one of the biggest, and most difficult to solve political issues.

The EU’s resilience to the successive crises of recent years, as well as critical decisions that impact on the course of European integration, such as those reached in 2020 with regard to addressing the economic consequences of the pandemic, indicate the considerable importance which national political leaderships ascribe to the survival of the EU, despite the major disagreements that exist over numerous individual issues. The EU’s resilience is also reinforced by the positive image which the majority of its citizens currently have of the European project.

Managing the crisis facing liberal democracy will not be easy. It will require more inclusive economic policies aimed at reducing economic and social inequalities, as well as the intergenerational inequalities that already constitute a major problem. The international environment in which the EU will have to maneuver over the next twenty years will be determined by a number of factors: technological progress, the course of climate change, possible new pandemics, developments in the world economy and economic governance, arms control and nuclear proliferation, regional conflicts, terrorism. And, of course, by the emergence of other major centres of economic and political power.

The international context will range along the spectrum from a conflict-prone anarchic system to a more organized rule-based global international order of cooperation. The behavior of the major international players, and primarily the US and China, will be decisive, since it is largely these two nations that will set the tone for how global challenges will be addressed, how the world economy and the international legal order will be organized, and how they will deal with one another.

The global power shift from West to East, with the centre of economic and politico-military power moving from the West to the East, from North America and Europe to China, India and other emerging economies, is almost certain to continue. By 2040, there will be a change – most likely radical – in the balance of power. What is much less clear is how the ‘winners’ and the losers’, which will presumably include the EU, will manage this development. In 2040, China will most probably be the world’s leading economic power, If and to what extent the behaviour of this rising China is confrontational will largely depend on how the West reacts.

Five scenarios for the EU of 2040

Scenario 1: The Titanic

The EU falls apart, along with its institutions, exhausted by successive crises that have heightened its internal divisions and which are beyond its institutional capacity to resolve. This extreme scenario entails the dismantling of the European single market and the loss of the right of free movement and settlement within Europe. The rise of nationalism in Europe is accompanied by instability and confrontation between European nations and with third countries. The former EU Member States lose political and economic influence at the global level. Most European countries seek the protection of Great Powers in the context of an asymmetrical relationship of patronage.

Scenario 2: A Minimal Union

The EU is unable to proceed any further towards integration. Member States refuse to grant the EU new areas of competence, the vision of a united Europe is lost, and the path to deeper integration is abandoned. The incomplete monetary union remains prone to crises, which weaken its internal economic, social and political cohesion. The economies on the Euro periphery are particularly vulnerable to crises that lead to rising borrowing costs as well as financial and economic instability. Divided internally, the EU remains at the margins of global developments.

Scenario 3: A Europe of small steps

The Union is characterized by great resilience to crises, from which it often emerges stronger and more united than before. Nonetheless, disagreements over the future of the EU preclude any big steps towards further unification. The implementation of the programmes financed by the Recovery Fund has boosted development in the economically weak EU countries and fed into a trend towards the re-convergence of the euro area economies. The EU is improving its capacity to collaborate on immigration and asylum policy. However, there is still no single European policy, while the protection of external borders remains chiefly the responsibility of individual Member States.

Scenario 4: Coalitions of the willing

A group of EU Member States, led by France and Germany, are moving towards closer integration in specific areas of economic, foreign and/or other policy. The most likely “coalition of the willing” forms around the Eurozone, with decisions being made by qualified majority voting. These countries are moving towards a closer fiscal integration of the euro, setting up a Eurozone budget. The preconditions for a common European immigration and asylum policy start to fall into place. The “coalition of the willing” acquires a regional and international stature that is greater than the sum of its member.

Scenario 5: The United States of Europe

The EU and all its Member States take the historic leap towards a full Political and Economic Union. A Constituent Assembly adopts a European Constitution which transforms the EU into a true federal democracy.The Eurozone becomes a full-fledged economic, fiscal, banking and political union. The EU becomes a powerful guarantor of rights and the rule of law in Europe, it acquires a common foreign and security policy, and the European Defence Union becomes a reality. As a result, the EU develops into an important international power centre, whose strategic autonomy allows it to promote its distinct interests globally.

The “Titanic” and “United States of Europe” are highly unlikely, however in a world undergoing such radical changes and instability they cannot be ruled out completely. The more likely outcomes are to be found in the intermediate scenarios and in possible combinations of two or more scenarios. What it crucial is that all in-between scenarios highlight the serious possibility of a more differentiated EU through the creation of “coalitions of the willing”, meaning there will be forms of enhanced cooperation and unification in which not all the Member States will participate. This has been after all the trend during the past 20, if not 30 years in the EU.

Consequences and choices for Greece

To date, Greece’s EU participation has been marked by the right strategic choices made at critical historic turning points which determined its progress thereafter, by significant diplomatic successes in European negotiations, but also by numerous crises which have affected our relationship with the rest of Europe – far more than Greece’s size would seem to warrant.

Greece’s relationship with European integration is both existential and transactional. It is existential, because in our difficult corner of the world, the country needs powerful allies and a strong Europe as an additional shield. It is also existential because a European pole of democratic, economic and geopolitical stability can both serve as a reference point and contribute crucially to a qualitative upgrading of the Hellenic Republic. Greece’s relationship with the EU is obviously also a transactional relationship, given the enormous importance of European resources and the transfer of know-how for the country’s economic development – provided, however, that the Greek economy can compete successfully in an environment whose rules often reflect the interests of more advanced economies.

For all these reasons, Greece needs a strong and united Europe that will function more as a federation and less as a form of intergovernmental cooperation in which the interests of the more powerful states tend to dominate. In an extremely competitive environment such as the European internal market with a common currency, Greece can maximize the benefits of membership given two preconditions: firstly,that it has a healthy and outward-looking economy that implements its digital and green transformations at top speed, which sometimes requires difficult political choices between competitiveness and social solidarity and, secondly, a strong European policy of cohesion and solidarity. The first condition depends mainly on us, the second clearly much less so.

A third requirement is a modern state that sets the basic parameters and guides the domestic economy – to what degree is a matter of ideological preference – a state that negotiates with competence and flexibility in Brussels and applies Community rules effectively. What is also required is a rudimentary political consensus on the fundamental priorities of Greece’s European and foreign policy. In a more differentiated EU, which is the most likely development in the years to come, the crucial question for Greece is whether it will be able to participate in the “coalitions of the willing” and on what conditions.

A strong country with self-confidence, a modern state, a competitive economy and social cohesion, a minimum of consensus on the fundamental goals of European and foreign policy, ever present in European affairs and decision-making and with well-chosen alliances will clearly be far better placed to join the ‘fast track’ in a multi-speed Europe and influence developments. If Greece is left outside the “coalition of the willing”, however, there is a risk of its falling into a perilous vicious circle of introversion and external insecurity, economic stasis, and instability both political and social. It is precisely this vicious circle we must work to avoid with all the means at our disposal.

 I.L.

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The Greek Politics Specialist Group (GPSG) is an international, non-profit network of leading experts on Greek politics under the umbrella of the UK’s Political Studies Association (PSA). The GPSG is one the most active international networks for the study of Greek politics: its wide range of activities and publications aim at providing a understanding of modern Greece to an international audience; creating an academic forum for debate and analysis; acting as source for journalists and international news organizations and creating a valuable interface between Greek and international academia.

GPSG just launched a new website, https://gpsg.org.uk where you stay informed on their papers and conferences, read their annual reports, newsletters and special issues. as well as listen to their podcasts.  More than 110 of conference papers are available and can be accessed in the website’s PSA Conference Panels section.

The most recently paper published in GPSG is on “Mapping the far-right vote in the European electoral arena: The Greek far-right in cross-national perspective” by Evgenia-Eleni Mavropoulou, and it has won the GPSG award under the “Call for Paper Competition Greece: From Economic Rescue to Recovery and Reform?”.This working paper is concerned with the electoral performance of far-right parties in the 2014 European Parliamentary elections. The author concludes the onset of the financial crisis did not exclusively provoke but contributed to the further political consolidation and electoral reinforcement of the far-right party spectrum, stating thtn even in the case of Greece, the far-right phenomenon of Golden Dawn "should be assessed as a deep-rooted and not a circumstantial aspect of the contemporary party systems since over the last four decades it has been presenting a continuity and an apparent flexibility along every single electoral process."

The Greek Politics Specialist Group goals as stated in their website are:

• To promote the understanding of Greek government and politics via the encouragement of systematic research and teaching.
• To strengthen the ties between the UK and Greek academic communities and facilitate the exchange of research and expertise between the two countries.
• To support comparative and interdisciplinary political analysis, by collaborating with other PSA Specialist Groups and academic research centres, and by highlighting an expanding body of work on public administration, international affairs, psephology, political communication, political marketing, political theory etc.
• To provide UK-based scholars of (and from) Greece with a much-needed forum for the free exchange of ideas and to facilitate networking within the academic community.

On October 29, 2018, at the Onassis Cultural Centre in Athens the event titled “Diaspora and political participation in Greek political affairs”, was co-organized by the Greek Diaspora Project of SEESOX (South East European Studies at Oxford), the Greek Politics Specialist Group and the diaΝΕΟsis research organization, takling the pressing issue of voting rights for expatriate Greek citizens from their place of residence, as well as the general political behavior of Diaspora Greeks (recent and past). The expert committee's conclusion on whether and how Greeks abroad can vote from their place of residence is expected by the end of January 2019. 

The latest book published by members of the Greek Politics Specialist Group is “Crisis in the Eurozone Periphery: the Political Economies of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland” (London: Palgrave 2018). The book, edited by Owen Parker and Dimitris Tsarouhas, investigates the causes and consequences of crisis in four countries of the Eurozone periphery – Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The contributions to this volume are provided from country-specific experts, and are organized into two themed subsections: the first analyses the economic dynamics at play in relation to each state, whilst the second considers their respective political situations. The work debates what made these states particularly susceptible to crisis, the response to the crisis and its resultant effects, as well as the manifestation of resistance to austerity. In doing so, Parker and Tsarouhas consider the implications of continued fragilities in the Eurozone both for these countries and for European integration more generally.

GPSG’s executive committee is composed of Dr Georgios Karyotis, Senior Lecturer and PGT Director in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Glasgow; Dr. Stella Ladi, Senior Lecturer at Queen Mary University of London and assistant professor at Panteion University in Athens, Dimitris Tsarouhas, Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations, Bilkent University, Turke; Dr. Vasiliki Tsagkroni, Lecturer at Leiden University at the Institute of Political Science; Dr Dimitris Skleparis, Research Associate at the University of Glasgow, Dr. Lamprini Rori, Lecturer in Politics at the University of Exeter and Dr Panagiota Manoli, Assistant Professor in International Political Economy at the Department of Mediterranean Studies, University of the Aegean.

Read more via Greek News Agenda: SEESOX Diaspora: New research project and website on Greek Diaspora; Kevin Featherstone on LSE's Hellenic Observatory and the concept of 'union' in the EU; Thanos Veremis on the FYROM name issue, European Policy for the Balkans and Greece’s future

I.L.

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ELIAMEP (Hellenic Institute for European and Foreign Policy)* recenty announced it will launch an Asian Studies Programme, coordinated by its Director General Dr Thanos Dokos and Dr George Tzogopoulos.  Taking into account the shift of the US interest from the Middle East to the Asian Continent and the economic and political rise of China, the research program aims at contributing to a better understanding of politics and international relations in Asia as well as to an assessement of the strategy of the important players. The main activities of ELIAMEP Asian Studies Programme will be the publication of relevant papers and the organisation of debates to facilitate public dialogue.

Relevant Publications:

• George Tzogopoulos, ‘Sino-American Relations under Trump’, CIFE, January 2017
• George Tzogopoulos, ‘Greece: Perspectives on Eurasian Integration’, chapter in the book Absorb and conquer: An EU approach to Russian and Chinese integration in Eurasia, ECFR, June 2016
• George Tzogopoulos, ‘From China to Greece – on track for the New Silk Road – Whither Sino-Greek relations?’ , CIFE, March 2016
• George Tzogopoulos, ‘China and Juncker’s Investment Plan’, ELIAMEP Briefing Note, Ν
• George Tzogopoulos, ‘The Piraeus Port and Sino-Greek Relations’, ELIAMEP Briefing Note, Ν
• Thanos Dokos, ‘The Geopolitical Implications of Sino-Greek Relations’, Clingendael Institute, May 2013

In view of the launch of its Asian Studies Programme, ELIAMEP has already participated the following events:

• Roundatble Discussion with a delegation from Pacific Consulting Group, 9 December 2016
• Roundatable Discussion with a delegation from China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), 2 June 2016
• Roundtable Discussion with the Ambassador of Australia to Greece, John Griffin, ‘Why Asia is of growing importance for Europe’, 31 May 2016
• Roundtable Discussion with Professor Τomonori Yoskikazi (The National Institute for Defense), ‘Japan’s foreign policy’, 30 May 2016
• Roundtable Discussion with Dr. YenChen–shen (Institute of International Relations), ‘Taiwan’s political situation’, 14 May 2016
• Roundtable Discussion with Dr Frans-Paul van der Putten (Clingendael Institute): ‘The New Silk Road and Greece’s role’ 4 April 2016
• Public Discussion:‘The New Silk Road and China’s foreign policy’, 30 March 2016
• Public Discussion:‘Maritime Security – Differences between Europe and Asia’, 15 January 2016.
• Roundtable Discussion: ‘Security Issues in Europe’s Southern Neighborhood and in Southeast Asia: A Comparative Analysis’, 30 November 2015

ELIAMEP has also paticipated in the first ‘EU-China Think Thank Dialogue’, which took place in Beijing on 6 and 7 April 2016. It has also participated in ‘New Med’ research network launched by Ιstituto Affari Internazionali. In collaboration with Torino World Affairs Institute they co-organised the conference:‘China in the Mediterranean’in Torino in 17 and 18 February 2016.

*ELIAMEP was founded in 1988 with the aim to serve as a place for research and training, as well as a forum for open dialogue and deliberation on topical matters of European and foreign policy. Eliamep conducts research on topics pertaining to European integration, the future of Europe and international relations with special emphasis on security, transatlantic relations, migration, energy security, relations between the EU and Asia, human rights, good governance and climate change issues. Its geographical areas of interest include the wider Southeast European, Black Sea, Mediterranean and Middle East regions.

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Established in 1996, the LSE’s Hellenic Observatory (HO) celebrates its 20th Anniversary with conferences, research seminars and public lectures. H.E. Mr Prokopis Pavlopoulos, President of the Hellenic Republic, delivered the anniversary lecture marking the occasion at the Athens Concert Hall, on November 28th titled “The principle of Solidarity in the framework of primary European Law: Guarantees provided by the Treaty for the European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union”. President Pavlopoulos underlined that the two special areas where the principle of solidarity is important in today's Europe are the economy and the refugee crisis. He also referred to the father of Europe, Robert Schuman, who considered solidarity as a key element in building a cohesive Europe.

Professor Paul Kelly, Pro-Director for Education and International Affairs & Professor on Political Theory in the Government Department, LSE, and Professor Kevin Featherstone, Head of the European Institute; Eleftherios Venizelos Professor of Contemporary Greek Studies & Professor of European Politics, LSE, delivered welcoming messages. 

Greece: Modernisation and Europe 20 years on

Another one-day conference, was also organized on the occasion of the 20th Anniversary of the HO at the premises of the LSE Campus, on Friday, November 25th. Drawing on the conference ‘Greece: Prospects for Modernisation' that was held 20 years ago (November 1994) at the LSE European Institute, a one-day conference on 25 November focused on the modernisation of Greece over the past two decades, looking at the state of play in Politics, Public Administration, Economic and Social Policy. Former Prime Minister Costas Simitis delivered the keynote speech titled “Greece: Modernisation and Europe 20 years on”, emphasizing the need for deepening the common European project:

“There is an evident lack of central guidance and the absence of a truly inclusive way of getting all member states to pull in the same direction. Developing a coherent policy that will confront the causes of grave imbalances and new problems is imperative. Such a policy requires much closer economic and political cooperation, and will lead to gradual European integration” Simitis concluded.

Has Greece been modernised and where are we now? Is modernisation still relevant to Greece in times of crisis? Panelists, Kevin Featherstone, Sir Christopher Pissarides, Vassilis Monastiriotis, Takis Pappas, Calliope Spanou, Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos, George Pagoulatos, Miranda Xafa, Nicos Christodoulakis, Platon Tinios, Antigone G. Lyberaki, Spyros Economides, Loukas Tsoukalis and Paschos Mandravelis, Aristos Doxiadis, responded to questions while focusing on Greek public administration and the significance of the 'modernisation' concept; the successes and failures of Greece’s economic modernisation programme over the last two decades; and the evolution of the Greek welfare state and social policy.

You can listen to podcasts from each session by clicking here.

About LSE’s Hellenic Observatory

The LSE’s HO produces and disseminates high quality and policy relevant academic research on Greece and Southeast Europe across a range of issues within the social sciences. Its series of events help achieve one of its core missions, to encourage social dialogue and inform the academic and policy debates on contemporary policy issues for Greece and Southeast Europe. Details about the Anniversary, achievements and activities over the last 20 years can be found here.

One of the main objectives of the Hellenic Observatory is to develop high-quality research in the area of social sciences focusing on modern Greece & Cyprus and their international position within the European Union and Southeast Europe. The Observatory encourages the study of modern Greece & Cyprus through a multi-disciplinary and comparative perspective.

Read more: Celebrating the 20th Anniversary of LSE’s Hellenic Observatory

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The Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) and the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) recently published a joint monograph “ Greece and the EU: Lessons from a long-standing crisis”, edited by CIDOB Research Fellow in European Affairs Pol Morillas and ELIAMEP Director General Thanos Dokos, with the aim to provide a comprehensive view “on the changing landscape of both Greek and European politics as a consequence of the eurozone crisis. This collection of articles is the result of a joint workshop that was organized in December 2015 debating on the hypothesis of how Greece and the EU should have handled the transformation of the Greek political scene and the eurozone’s response to a systemic crisis respectively.

Upon introducing the topics of discussion, Thanos Dokos and Pol Morillas explain that the objectives of both the seminar and the monograph were to analyze, first, how the government of SYRIZA transitioned from an opposition force to a mainstream political party, second, what were the geopolitical dimensions of the Greek crisis and the historical trends that determined SYRIZA’s response, and third, which were the effects of the Greek crisis on Eurozone governance and the European policies to tackle the economic crisis.

George Pagoulatos and Panagiotis Vlachos first discuss Syriza’s European Policy Choices on the Way to Greece’s 3rd Bailout Program, arguing that Syriza has been unable to cultivate effective coalitions and secure better results during the negotiations of the first 6-month governance after the elections of January 2015, which resulted in the ignition of a Grexit scenario during the summer of 2015 and further deteriorated the country’s enfeebled economy. In An Old Crisis, a New Government and the Creditors: “Plus ça change plus c’est la même chose”?, Dimitris Katsikas assesses the contents of the negotiations of the third bailout agreement between Greece and its creditors and unveils the mistakes made by the Greek government that resulted in a loss of credibility in the eyes of the creditors and peer European governments. In analyzing SYRIZA’s efforts to become a more mainstream political force and to Europeanize the Greek crisis, Filippa Chatzistavrou discovers “a post-left managerialism attitude in the Syriza government, tacitly accepting the premises of the third bailout programme and adjusting to its pro-austerity prerogatives”.

As far as the geopolitical dimension of the Greek Crisis is concerned, Dr. Thanos Dokos warns, in the fifth chapter of the monograph, about the risks entailed in assessing the Greek crisis merely from an economic perspective, underestimating the “severe repercussions for regional stability in southeastern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean, as well as the ability of the EU and NATO to play meaningful roles in those regions” had Greece being forced to leave the Eurozone. In this respect, Dr. Dokos analyses Greece’s geopolitical importance for the EU by explaining how the country is still playing an important stabilizing role in the western Balkan region, its contribution to the European energy security and its impact on the Eastern Mediterranean, but more importantly, the results of its relations with Russia and its fundamental role in tackling the refugee/migrant crisis amidst growing discontent with European processes and institutions.  Within the geopolitical context, Effie G.H. Pedaliu explores the historical perspective of the Greek crisis and analyzes “how the DNA of the country has influenced the Greek government’s position on the debt crisis and the formation of a new political system in Greece dominated by Syriza”.

The two last chapters of the monograph assess the lessons learnt, both for the Eurozone and EMU Governance, paying particular attention to the fact that “Europe’s rather unsuccessful management of the Greek crisis may be partly attributed to its understandably limited experience in saving a member-state of the Eurozone”.   

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The Greek Energy Forum was founded and headquartered in London in 2013 as an initiative that sought to establish an international energy think tank, in the form of a nonprofit volunteer association, consisting of Greek energy professionals holding international corporate posts, and sharing a common interest in the broader energy industry in Greece and Southeastern Europe.    

Since then, its members have been working towards consolidating the Forum’s objectives, mainly to establish an international platform of ideas and dialogue amongst energy professionals so as to enable change in the energy setting of SE Europe/East Med, to inform investors and public opinion on the latest energy developments and “best practice” examples successfully applied abroad, as well as to propose and communicate energy policy proposals and reforms to governments and decision makers.  The Greek Energy Forum, currently holding branch offices in Brussels, Athens, Nicosia, Dubai and Washington DC, holds regular meetings at different international locations in the form of networking events and round-table sessions, panel discussions or presentations, hosting guest speakers who share their views on targeted energy topics and contribute to the open discussion among members. Additionally, the formation of working groups within its member structure results in the publication of articles and opinions papers published across multiple media platforms Last month, the Energy Forum launched a new market intelligence service titled “GEF Reality Check” with the purpose to increase the visibility of fast unfolding developments that currently take place in the regional energy sector and to provide the incentive to the international community to explore potential business opportunities.

Despite the fact that the Forum is quite young, it has already implemented a number of initiatives, aiming to become one of the most promising energy think-tanks. Underpinned by this aspiration and the ideal of “Aien Aristeuein”, the Forum established its first annual Greek Energy Forum Awards ceremony in an attempt to acknowledge individuals and companies that have become a benchmark of excellence, competence, inspiration and innovation in the energy industry.  Under the auspices of the Press and Communication Office of the Embassy of Greece in London, the “Energy Awards 2016” was held on May 9th at Cass Business School in London, where the members of GEF awarded representatives from the business sector, academia and research for their outstanding contribution in the field of energy in Greece and the broader area.

The awards panel included amongst its distinguished guests, HE Konstantinos Bikas, Ambassador of Greece to the UK, Mr. Euripides L Evriviades, High Commissioner for the Republic of Cyprus to the UK, Dr. Yannis Maniatis, Member of the Hellenic Parliament, Former Minister of Environment, Energy and Climate Change and Professor Kevin Featherstone, Head of the European Institute, LSE.

George Sakellaris, P.E. Chairman of the Board of Directors President and Chief Executive Officer Ameresco Inc. was the recipient of the award “Greek Energy Influencer”. The company “Corinth Pipeworks” received the award for “energy innovator”, the company Signal Maritime received the Energy StartUp award, while Ms Danae Azaria, Lecturer in Law at the University College in London, received an award for the “Research Project of the Year”, for her monograph Treaties on Transit of Energy via Pipelines and Countermeasures, which was published by Oxford University Press in 2015.  For a more detailed view of the awards list visit http://gefenergyawards.eventsadmin.com/i/Awardwinnersbycategory

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The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has published its 2016 Economic Survey for Greece, which finds that the economy is gradually recovering from a deep recession and that significant structural reforms have been legislated. However, high social costs persist and this means stronger exports and investment are key to a sustained recovery.

More specifically, according to the remarks of the OECD Secretary-General, Angel Gurria, “The Greek economy is gradually recovering from the deepest recession in its modern history. The outlook is still very complex, but the policies and reforms promoted by Prime Minister Tsipras’ government are starting to bear fruit. It’s now time to refocus the reform effort to promote inclusion, social well-being and competitiveness. To achieve this, it is essential to improve policy implementation and increase the Greek ownership of reforms, but also, and most importantly, to achieve an agreement with Greece’s creditors to alleviate the burden of its massive and unsustainable public debt. This will require enlightened leadership, political courage, improved administrative capacities and effective multilateral cooperation.”

“The tide is turning for Greece,” stressed Gurria in his remarks. “In reality, the Greek economy shows significant signs of resilience, as a 2015 recession was smaller than anticipated. The real GDP contracted by 0.3 percent with the help of another record season for tourism, with tourists arriving in Greece reaching 24 million. Second, despite the fact that we expect a zero growth rate in 2016 (-0.1 percent), a carry-over from last year, growth is expected to gain dynamism in 2017 with a growth rate of around 2.0 percent. Third, the labor market shows signs of gradual improvement, with unemployment rates falling from 2013 highs. Greece still has the highest unemployment rate in the EU (24.6 percent), but it is now lower from May 2012. Fourth, a successful recapitalization of banks, a gradual lifting of capital controls and reforms to deal with a high rate of non-performing loans, have also helped to stabilize the banking system and will strengthen the restoring of confidence and credit. Completion of the first review of the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] program will further enhance confidence; ignite investments and exports that will support economic recovery."

The report underscores that, in order to help Greece recover from the profound social costs of the economic crisis, boosting economic growth and investment to create jobs, improving the stability of public finances and providing an effective social safety net are crucial. Tackling poverty and inequality must be urgent policy priorities, it adds. Among the recommendations are also public assistance programmes that would cost around 1.5 per cent of the country‘s GDP in order "to alleviate the social crisis."

Gurria in Athens: Greece needs substantial support to deal with the refugee crisis

On Thursday (09/03) Angel Gurria visited Athens to present Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras with the findings of the survey.  Gurria called the time of his visit to Greece crucial, adding that the OECD is glad to support Athens’ reforms program, while stressing that much work remains. He praised the government on dealing with these issues very effectively, but stressed that there is no margin for complacency. Gurría also commented that “the refugee crisis creates significant problems for the Greek economy and growth,"adding that Greece needs to receive substantial support to deal with this, as “no single country can address this challenge on its own."

“It is very important that throughout the year we had a very good cooperation” PM Tsipras said to Gurria, noting that after all those years of recession it is important that we are seeing signs of recovery.Tripras said that “we are very close to the completion of the first review that will give the signal for the start of serious discussions on debt relief”, further commenting on Twitter that “The OECD's report highlights the need, among others, to adopt policies that further social cohesion.”

Read more: One page summary of Survey (links to pdf)

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